Climate change in Greece: what the data actually show
Most coverage of the climate crisis in Greece is a single news story at a time. This page puts the pieces side by side: what has been measured, what it costs, what the state has planned and what people think, with a source for every number.
Climate change in two sentences
The United Nations defines climate change as long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Some shifts are natural, but since the 1800s the main driver has been human activity, above all burning fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere.
By the same source, the Earth's surface is now about 1.44°C warmer than in the late 1800s. Europe is warming faster: according to the European State of the Climate 2024 report by Copernicus and the WMO, it has warmed twice as fast as the global average since the 1980s. In Greece the term climate crisis is even part of a ministry's name: the survey we cover below was commissioned by the Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection.
Climate change in Greece: what has already changed
Hotter summers and heatwaves
The team at meteo.gr, part of the National Observatory of Athens, recorded summer 2024 as the warmest in Greece since 1960. It was 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 average and about 1°C above the previous record, summer 2012. June and July 2024 were the warmest on record, and August came second, behind August 2021. The trend in mean summer temperature from 1960 to 2024 amounts to a rise of 2.3°C.
This is not a one-year story. In its analysis of summer 2026, which ranked 6th warmest since 1960, the same team put the rise in mean summer temperature at 2.5°C for 1960–2025.
Copernicus looked separately at southeastern Europe, which it defines as 39°–46°N and 15°–30°E (this includes mainland Greece north of the 39th parallel). In summer 2024 it counted 66 days with at least "strong heat stress", against an average of 29, and 23 tropical nights, when the minimum temperature stayed at or above 20°C. The average is 8 and the previous record was 16, in 2012.
Drought and water scarcity
For the same region, Copernicus reports that summer 2024 drought conditions were the worst in a 12-year data record, and that average summer river flow was notably or exceptionally low on 35% of rivers. The European Environment Agency lists Greece among the countries where water scarcity in 2023 occurred mainly in spring and summer. For Attica's water reserves, see our article on water shortage in Greece.
Wildfires
Heat and drought together raise fire risk. In August 2024, according to Copernicus, the largest wildfire in southeastern Europe burned almost 11,000 hectares near Athens, and about 1,600 people were evacuated. We explain how fire risk is mapped on our wildfire risk page.
Floods
The 2024 report notes that changing rainfall, including more intense extreme events, can lead to more flooding. We will cover how to read a flood hazard map in a separate article.
Risk = hazard × exposure × vulnerability
A heatwave does not hit everyone equally. The IPCC, as summarised by the EEA's Climate-ADAPT platform, describes climate risk as the result of three factors:
- Hazard: a physical event or trend that can cause harm, such as a heatwave, a drought, a storm or sea level rise.
- Exposure: the presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems or assets in places where they could be harmed.
- Vulnerability: the propensity to be harmed, which includes sensitivity and a limited capacity to cope and adapt.
The "×" is shorthand, not real multiplication. It still makes a useful point: shrink any of the three and the risk shrinks too. Nobody can stop tomorrow's heatwave, but exposure and vulnerability can be cut, for example with shade, cool rooms and checks on people who live alone.
What the climate crisis could cost: the Bank of Greece study
The best-known Greek cost estimate comes from the Climate Change Impacts Study Committee of the Bank of Greece, presented on 1 June 2011. The study ran projections to 2100 for 13 regions of the country and compared scenarios. Cumulative totals to 2100:
| Scenario | Cumulative cost to 2100 |
|---|---|
| No action (no global emission cuts) | €701 billion |
| Adaptation only (measures costing €67 billion) | €510 billion |
| Global emission cuts | €294 billion |
These are outputs of "what if" scenarios, not forecasts. The same study expected longer, more intense heatwaves and dry spells, and therefore a higher wildfire risk.
Greece's National Adaptation Strategy
According to the Ministry of Environment and Energy, Greece's first National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change was approved under Law 4414/2016 (articles 42–45), after a public consultation on the draft from 24 November to 8 December 2015. The content of the Regional Adaptation Plans was set by Ministerial Decision 11258/2017, and the National Council for Adaptation was set up by Ministerial Decision 34768/2017.
In 2022 Parliament passed National Climate Law 4936/2022 on the transition to climate neutrality and adaptation. Greece's page on Climate-ADAPT lists the regional plans as being developed and shows adaptation reports to the EU in 2021, 2023 and 2025.
What Greeks think about climate change
In June 2022 diaNEOsis published a nationwide survey by Metron Analysis, with fieldwork in April 2022, together with open data. Some findings from the executive summary:
- Only 8.8% dispute that a climate crisis exists.
- Forest fires stand out as the most important environmental risk.
- Asked who is mainly responsible for tackling it, 53.2% name national governments, 36.5% citizens and 28.7% the EU. Municipalities (6.9%) and regions (5.4%) trail far behind.
- 80.7% say the state does too little, and 76.1% say the same of the EU.
How to read a climate scenario
A scenario answers "what happens if". The Bank of Greece figures, for instance, depend on how far global emissions fall. So it pays to ask three things: what assumption was made, for which period and area, and how wide a range of uncertainty is given. We cover this in detail in our guide on how to read a forecast.
Kassandra Labs is at concept stage. It does not issue climate forecasts today. This page aims to explain the official data and show where to find it.
Frequently asked questions
What is climate change, in plain words?
The UN defines it as long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Some are natural, but since the 1800s the main driver has been human activity, mostly burning fossil fuels. The greenhouse gases released trap heat in the atmosphere, and the Earth's surface is now about 1.44°C warmer than in the late 1800s.
How much has Greece warmed?
According to meteo.gr at the National Observatory of Athens, mean summer temperature in Greece rose by 2.5°C between 1960 and 2025. Summer 2024 was the warmest since 1960, 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 average. At European level, Copernicus reports that Europe has warmed twice as fast as the global average since the 1980s.
Climate change or climate crisis: what is the difference?
They describe the same phenomenon. "Climate change" is the scientific term for long-term shifts in climate. "Climate crisis" is often used to stress that the impacts are already serious and call for action. In Greece the second term has entered government itself, in the name of the Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection.
What is Greece's National Adaptation Strategy?
It is the national framework for making the country more resilient to climate impacts. It was approved under Law 4414/2016 and provides for Regional Adaptation Plans, whose content was set by Ministerial Decision 11258/2017. National Climate Law 4936/2022 followed in 2022. Climate-ADAPT lists the regional plans as still being developed.
Sources
- United Nations — What is climate change?
- Copernicus Climate Change Service & WMO — European State of the Climate 2024
- Copernicus — ESOTC 2024: Heat and drought in southeastern Europe
- meteo.gr / National Observatory of Athens — Summer 2024: the warmest on record for Greece (6 Sep 2024)
- meteo.gr / National Observatory of Athens — Summer 2026: the 6th warmest since 1960 (7 Sep 2026)
- European Environment Agency — Use of freshwater resources in Europe (indicator, Nov 2025)
- Climate-ADAPT (EEA) — Adaptation Support Tool, step 2.1: climate risk (IPCC AR6 terms)
- Climate-ADAPT (EEA) — Greece country profile
- Ministry of Environment and Energy (ΥΠΕΝ) — Adaptation to climate change
- diaNEOsis / Metron Analysis — Climate change and the Greeks (survey, June 2022)
- diaNEOsis — Climate change survey: executive summary (June 2022)
- Bank of Greece — Presentation of the Climate Change Impacts Study Committee report (1 Jun 2011)