Who publishes the map, and when
The daily Fire Risk Prediction Map is the responsibility of the General Secretariat for Civil Protection, part of the Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection. Its role is set by article 30 of Law 4964/2022. According to the circular for the 2026 fire season, the map is issued every day from 1 May to 31 October. It is finished by 12:30 and covers the next day, so the map you see at lunchtime is about tomorrow.
The map is drawn up by a team of foresters and meteorologists. The circular is clear that it is not a weather forecast. It estimates how likely forest ecosystems are to catch fire, based on the conditions expected over the next 24 hours, such as the weather and the state of the vegetation. The smallest unit on the map is the area of each local Forest Service, because those areas follow the country's forest complexes. Past maps are kept in a public archive.
What the five categories mean
The map uses five risk categories. Categories 1 to 4 are the everyday scale. Category 5 is a state of alert and, as the circular puts it, appears rarely.
| Category | Name | What it means (summary of the official description) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Low | A fire is not especially likely. If one starts, fuel and weather will not favour fast growth. |
| 2 | Medium | Normal summer risk. Fires that start are expected to be of medium difficulty to fight. |
| 3 | High | More fires are likely, and several could be hard to control where terrain or local winds help them. |
| 4 | Very high | Many fires may start and, above all, any fire that escapes the first attack can become large. |
| 5 | State of alert | Extreme risk. Fires can grow very quickly and behave extremely right after they start, and stay hard to control until conditions change. |
When an area is in category 4 or 5, a special warning signal goes to the agencies involved, so they can move to higher readiness. The Secretariat may also issue public warnings with advice for people in those areas. The circular also asks motorway operators to show the forecast risk on their electronic signs.
Two things the map does not say
First, a red area does not mean a fire will break out there, and a low category does not rule one out. The circular says this directly. Part of the point of warnings is to stop the careless actions that start fires, so a quiet "very high" day can be a sign that warnings worked.
Second, the daily map is about danger, not about who or what is exposed. The circular separates it from a different product: the National Wildfire Risk Assessment Map, approved by a joint ministerial decision in December 2025. That map is long-term. It is built from an area's fire history and from stable features such as vegetation type, altitude and microclimate.
How Europe looks at the same problem
The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) publishes its own fire danger forecast. It uses the Canadian Fire Weather Index system, chosen in 2007 so that danger is rated the same way across Europe. Its forecasts run from 1 to 9 days ahead on a grid of about 8 km, with six danger classes. A "very extreme" class was added in June 2021. The national map remains the official reference in Greece. EFFIS is useful for the wider and longer view.
For the long-term picture, the EU's Joint Research Centre published a pan-European wildfire risk assessment in 2022. It looks at areas where people, ecosystems and economic assets are exposed to fire danger, and rates structural risk as low, intermediate or high using trends from the past 20 years.
Danger maps and exposure models
A danger map answers "how easily could a fire start and spread here tomorrow?" An exposure model asks a different question: "if a fire does spread here, which homes, roads, schools and people are in its way, and how fast can they get out?" The two work together. The first is for daily readiness. The second is for planning before the season: where to clear vegetation, which roads need a second exit, which villages fill up with visitors in August.
That second kind of question is what a community-level wildfire risk twin could help with. It would not compete with or replace the official map. It would sit beside it, for planning. We looked at a real case in our post on the 2023 Evros wildfire.
What to do with the map
- Check it the day before on civilprotection.gov.gr, especially before work outdoors or travel through forest areas.
- On category 4 or 5 days, avoid anything that could spark a fire, and follow the advice in official announcements.
- In an emergency, follow the instructions of Civil Protection and the 112 service. A risk map is a planning tool, not an evacuation order.
Sources
- General Secretariat for Civil Protection — Issuance of the daily Fire Risk Prediction Map, 2026 fire season (circular A1640, 30 April 2026)
- General Secretariat for Civil Protection — Archive of daily fire risk maps
- EFFIS (Copernicus / JRC) — Fire danger forecast, technical background
- European Commission JRC — New tool to provide a harmonised fire risk assessment across the pan-European region, 2022